Leading Indicators Unchanged in June

Note: Data problems delayed the release of this report.

September 21, 2000 --The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County was unchanged in June. Four of the componentsBinitial claims for unemployment insurance, local stock prices, consumer confidence, and the outlook for the national economyBwere down during the month, although only consumer confidence was significantly so. These were offset by a big increase in building permits and a smaller gain in help wanted advertising.

The unchanged reading in June broke a string of 15 consecutive monthly gains in the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators. For the first time since December 1998, more of the Index's components declined in a month than increased. Only a strong gain in residential units authorized by building permits, which registered their highest level since January 1990, prevented the Index from showing a decline.

Index of Leading Economic Indicators 
The index for San Diego County that includes the components listed below (June) 
Source: University of San Diego 
+ 0.0 % 
Building Permits 
Residential units authorized by building permits in San Diego County (June) 
Source: Construction Industry Research Board 
+ 0.97% 
Unemployment Insurance 
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego County, inverted (June) 
Source: Employment Development Department 
- 0.26% 
Stock Prices 
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (June) 
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript 
- 0.21%
Consumer Confidence 
An index of consumer confidence in San Diego County (June) 
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
- 0.74% 
Help Wanted Advertising 
An index of help wanted advertising in the San Diego Union-Tribune (June) 
Source: Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce 
+ 0.18% 
National Economy 
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (June) 
Source: The Conference Board 
- 0.16% 

For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators, please contact:

Professor Alan Gin 
School of Business Administration 
University of San Diego 
5998 Alcalá Park 
San Diego, CA 92110 
TEL: (619) 260-4883 

FAX: (619) 501-2954 

E-mail: agin@home.com 

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators is published by USD’s Real Estate Institute (REI). For more information about the REI, please contact Mark Riedy at (619) 260-4872.