School of Business Administration

Leading Indicators Up 0.7% In September

November 20, 1997--The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.7 percent in September. Once again, strong gains in building permits and local stock prices led the upward move. There was a moderate increase in tourism, and a smaller advance in the outlook for the national economy. On the downside, initial claims for unemployment insurance and help wanted advertising were slightly negative.

 

Index of Leading Economic Indicators

The index for San Diego County that includes the components listed below (September)

Source: University of San Diego 

 

+ 0.7 % 

 

Building Permits

Residential units authorized by building permits in San Diego County (September)

Source: Construction Industry Research Board

 

+1.50% 

 

Unemployment Insurance

Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego County, inverted (September)

Source: Employment Development Department

 

- 0.38% 

 

Stock Prices

San Diego Stock Exchange Index (September)

Source: San Diego Daily Transcript

 

+ 2.40% 

 

Tourism

An index of tourist activity in San Diego County (September)

Source: San Diego Convention & Visitors Bureau

 

+0.57% 

 

Help Wanted Advertising

An index of help wanted advertising in theSan Diego Union-Tribune (September)

Source: Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce

 

- 0.18% 

 

National Economy

Index of Leading Economic Indicators (September)

Source: The Conference Board

 

+ 0.30% 

September's advance was the 30th consecutive monthly increase in the Index, and the magnitude of the gain was the largest since March of this year. In stark contrast to the March move, when the strongest components were initial claims for unemployment insurance and help wanted advertising, those labor market variables were the weakest in September. As was discussed in lastmonth's report, those components are already at high levels, so positive month-to-month comparisons may be difficult to achieve. For now, solid job growth is likely to continue in San Diego. However, the weakness in the labor market variables may be an indication that the rate of growth will slow in the near future.

Otherwise, the outlook for the local economy remains very positive. Local stock prices and building permits continue to surge ahead. Tourism rebounded nicely in September after appearing to have lost its steam the previous month. The outlook for the national economy remains positive despite the length of the current expansion at the national level. Overall, it appears that the economy of San Diego will finish 1997 on a strong note and is poised to continue its growth well into 1998.

September's increase puts the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 137.3, up from August's reading of 136.4. There was no revision to the previously reported change of +0.5% for that month. The fluctuations of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County for the last year are given below:

Index 

Change

SEP 

129.2 

+0.2% 

OCT 

129.5 

+0.2% 

NOV 

130.1 

+0.5% 

DEC 

130.7 

+0.4% 

1997 

JAN 

131.5 

+0.6% 

FEB 

132.6 

+0.9% 

MAR 

133.7 

+0.8% 

APR 

134.2 

+0.3% 

MAY 

134.5 

+0.3% 

JUN 

135.1 

+0.4% 

JUL 

135.7 

+0.4% 

AUG

136.4

+0.5% 

SEP

137.3

+0.7% 

 

For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators or the activities of the University's Economic Research Group, please contact:

 

Professor Alan Gin
School of Business Administration
University of San Diego
5998 Alcalá Park
San Diego, CA 92110 

TEL: (619) 260-4883

FAX: (619) 260-4891

E-mail: AGin@prodigy.net