Leading Indicators Up in June

August 12, 1999--The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.5 percent in June. The increase was led by a strong advance in local stock prices. There were also good gains in initial claims for unemployment insurance, help wanted advertising, and the outlook for the national economy, and building permits were up slightly as well. The only negative component in June was consumer confidence, which was down moderately.

	Index of Leading Economic Indicators  The index for San Diego County that includes the components listed below (June)  Source: University of San Diego	+ 0.5 %
	Building Permits  Residential units authorized by building permits in San Diego County (June)  Source: Construction Industry Research Board	+ 0.15%
	Unemployment Insurance  Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego County, inverted (June)  Source: Employment Development Department	+ 0.44%
	Stock Prices  San Diego Stock Exchange Index (June)  Source: San Diego Daily Transcript	+ 1.80%
	Consumer Confidence  An index of consumer confidence in San Diego County (June)  Source: San Diego Union-Tribune	- 0.40%
	Help Wanted Advertising  An index of help wanted advertising in the San Diego Union-Tribune (June)  Source: Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce	+ 0.56%
	National Economy  Index of Leading Economic Indicators (June)  Source: The Conference Board	+ 0.46%

With June’s gain, the Index has now increased for four consecutive months, and has not declined in the first six months of 1999. It was also the second solid gain in a row, with five of the six components increasing during the month. Given the leading nature of the Index, the outlook for the local economy in early 2000 is looking very promising at this point.

One of the reasons for the positive outlook is a very strong labor market. Last month’s report discussed the big drop in initial claims for unemployment insurance, suggesting a decline in the rate of job loss in San Diego. In June, the other side of the labor turned around. Help wanted advertising increased in the month after nine straight down months, indicating that the hiring side of the labor market is gaining in strength. With job losses down and hiring up, conditions in the labor market are likely to remain tight into the new year.

June's gain puts the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 143.3, up from April’s revised reading of 142.6. There was no revision of the previously reported change of +0.5% for May. The fluctuations of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County for the last year are given below:

		Index	Change
1998	JUN	143.2	+0.1%
	JUL	143.5	+0.2%
	AUG	143.8	+0.2%
	SEP	143.2	-0.4%
	OCT	142.5	-0.5%
	NOV	141.8	-0.5%
	DEC	141.1	-0.5%
1999	JAN	141.5	+0.3%
	FEB	141.5	+0.0%
	MAR	141.7	+0.2%
	APR	141.9	+0.1%
	MAY	142.6	+0.5%
	JUN	143.3	+0.5%

For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators, please contact:

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators is published by USD’s Real Estate Institute (REI). For more information about the REI, please contact Mark Riedy at (619) 260-4872.