Today,
many emerging markets, from Indonesia to Mexico, are told that there is
a certain code of conduct to which they must conform if they are to be
successful. The message is clear: here is what advanced industrial
countries do, and have done. If you wish to join the club, you must do
the same. The reforms will be painful, vested interests will resist,
but with enough political will, you will reap the benefits.
Each
country draws up a list of what to be done, and each government is held
accountable in terms of its performance. In all countries, balancing
the budget and controlling inflation are high on the list, but so are
structural reforms. In the case of Mexico, for example, opening up the
electricity industry, which Mexico's constitution reserves to the
government, has become the structural reform of the day demanded by the
West. So analysts--mindlessly one is tempted to say--praise Mexico for
its progress in controlling its budget and inflation, but criticize it
for lack of progress in electricity reform.
As
someone who was intimately involved in economic policy making in the
US, I have always been struck by the divergence between the policies
that America pushes on developing countries and those practiced in the
US itself. Nor is America alone: most other successful developing and
developed countries pursue similar "heretical" policies.
For
example, both political parties in the US now accept the notion that
when a country is in a recession, it is not only permissible, but even desirable,
to run deficits. Yet all over the world, developing countries are told
that central banks should focus exclusively on price stability.
America's central bank, the Federal Reserve Board, has a mandate to
balance growth, employment, and inflation--and it is a mandate that
brings it popular support.
While
free marketers rail against industrial policy, in the US the government
actively supports new technologies, and has done so for a long time.
The first telegraph line was built by the US Federal Government between
Baltimore and Washington in 1842; the Internet, which is so changing
today's economy, was developed by the US military. Much of modern
American technological progress is based on government-funded research
in biotechnology or defense.
Similarly,
while many countries are told to privatize social security, America's
public social security system is efficient (with transactions costs a
fraction of private annuities), and customers are responsive to it. It
has been pivotal in almost eliminating poverty among America's elderly.
While
the US Social Security System now faces a problem with under-funding,
so do a large fraction of America's private pension programs. And the
public pension system has provided the elderly with a kind of
security--both against inflation and the vagaries of the stock
market--that the private market to date simply has not.
Correspondingly,
many aspects of American economic policy contribute significantly to
America's success, but are hardly mentioned in discussions of
development strategies. For more than a hundred years, America has had
strong anti-trust laws, which broke up private monopolies in many
areas, such as oil. In some emerging markets, telecom monopolies are
stifling development of the Internet, and hence economic growth. In
others, monopolies in trade deprive countries of the advantages of
international competition, while monopolies in cement significantly
raise the price of construction.
The
American government also played an important role in developing the
country's financial markets--by providing credit directly or through
government-sponsored enterprises, and by partially guaranteeing a
quarter or more of all loans. Fannie Mae, the government-created entity
responsible for providing mortgages for middle-class Americans, helped
lower mortgage costs and played a significant role in making America
one of the countries with the largest proportion of private home
ownership.
The
Small Business Administration provided the capital to help small
businesses--some of which, like Federal Express, have grown into major
businesses creating thousands of jobs. Today, US Federal Government
student loans are central to ensuring that all Americans have access to
a college education, just as in earlier years, government finance
helped bring electricity to all Americans.
Occasionally,
America has experimented with free-market ideology and
deregulation--sometimes with disastrous effects. President Ronald
Reagan's deregulation of the Savings and Loan Associations led to an
infamous wave of bank failures that cost American taxpayers several
hundred billion dollars and contributed to the economic recession of
1991.
Those
in Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil, India and other emerging markets should
be told a quite different message: do not strive for a mythical
free-market economy, which has never existed. Do not follow the
encomiums of US special interests, whether in the corporate or
financial arena, because, although they preach free markets, back home
they rely on the US government to advance their aims.
Instead,
developing economies should look carefully, not at what America says,
but at what it did in the years when America emerged as an industrial
power, and what it does today. There is a remarkable similarity between
those policies and the activist measures pursued by the highly
successful East Asian economies over the past two decades.