Economics 494

INVESTMENT ECONOMICS

Spring 2015
 
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Answers to Recommended Problems I

Chapter 5

5. 

E(r) = 0.3 * (44) + 0.4 * (14) + 0.3 * (-16) = 14

σ2 = 0.3 * (44 - 14)2 + 0.4 * (14 - 14)2 + 0.3 * (-16 - 14)2 = 540

σ = 540^0.5 = 23.24

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6. 

HPR = (End price - start price + dividend) / start price

Economy Dividend Stock Price HPR
Boom $2.00 $50 (50 - 40 + 2.00) / 40 = +30%
Normal $1.00 $43 (43 - 40 + 1.00) / 40 = +10%
Recession $0.50 $34 (34 - 40 + 0.50) / 40 = -13.75%

E(r) = 0.33 * (30) + 0.33 * (10) + 0.33 * (-13.75) = 8.75

σ2 = 0.33 * (30 - 8.75)2 + 0.33 * (10 - 8.75)2 + 0.33 * (-13.75 - 8.75)2 = 319.79

σ = 319.79^0.5 = 17.88

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7.a.

HPR2010 = (110 - 100 + 4) / 100 = +14%

HPR2011 = (90 - 110 + 4) / 110 = -14.55%

HPR2012 = (95 - 90 + 4) / 90 = +10%

Arithmetic average = rA = (14 - 14.55 + 10) / 3 = 3.15%

Geometric average = rG = [(1 + 0.14) * (1 - 0.1455) * (1 + 0.10)]1/3 - 1 = 2.33%

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18.

Risk premium = E(rP) - rf => 10 = E(rP) - 6 => E(rP) = 16

E(rC) = 0.6 * (16) + 0.4 * (6) = 12

σC = y σP = 0.6 (14) = 8.4

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CFA 1.

Market value at end of 2011 = 100,000 * (1 + 0.05)7 = $140,710

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CFA 7.

E(rX) = 0.2 * (-20) + 0.5 * (18) + 0.3 * (50) = 20

E(rY) = 0.2 * (-15) + 0.5 * (20) + 0.3 * (10) = 10

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CFA 8.

σX2 = 0.2 * (-20 - 20)2 + 0.5 * (18 - 20)2 + 0.3 * (50 - 20)2 = 632

σX = 632^0.5 = 25

σY2 = 0.2 * (-15 - 10)2 + 0.5 * (20 - 10)2 + 0.3 * (10 - 10)2 = 175

σX = 175^0.5 = 13

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CFA 9.

E(rP) = 0.9 * 20 + 0.1 * 10 = 19

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Chapter 6

7. 

a.  The variance should be higher because the extreme values are more likely

b. 

E(r) = 0.10 * (-37) + 0.20 * (-11) + 0.35 * (14) + 0.35 * (30) = 9.5

σ2 = 0.10 * (-37 - 9.5)2 + 0.20 * (-11 - 9.5)2 + 0.35 * (14 - 9.5)2 + 0.35 * (30 - 9.5)2 = 454.45

σ = 454.45^0.5 = 21.32

c.  Cov = -42.925

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8. 

E(rP) = WS * E(rS) +  WB * E(rB)

σP2  = (WS σS)2 + (WB σB)2 + 2 (WS σS) (WB σB) ρSB 

WS WB E(rP) σP2 σP
0.0 1.0 0.090 0.0529 0.230
0.2 0.8 0.102 0.0415 0.204
0.4 0.6 0.114 0.0407 0.202
0.6 0.4 0.126 0.0506 0.225
0.8 0.2 0.138 0.0712 0.267
1.0 0.0 0.150 0.1024 0.32

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10.

Employing formula 6.10, wB = 0.353 and wS = 0.647

E(rP) = 0.647 * (15) + 0.353 * (9) = 12.9%

σP2 = 545.00 => σP = 23.35

SO = (12.9 - 5.5) / 23.35 = 0.317

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11.

a.  S= slope of CAL = [E(rP) - rf] / σP = 0.317

 => (12 - 5.5) / σP = 0.317

 => σP = 20.5

b.  E(rC) = Wf * E(rf) +  WP * E(rP) = 12

 => Wf * 5.5 +  (1 - Wf ) * 12.9 = 12

=> 5.5 Wf + 12.9 - 12.9 Wf = 12

=> 0.9 = 7.4 Wf

=> Wf = 0.12 => WP = 0.88 => WB = 0.88 * 0.353 = 0.31, WS = 0.88 * 0.647 = 0.57

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12.

wB = 0.50 and wS = 0.50

σP2 = 443.45 => σP = 21.06

The standard deviation is slightly higher with this portfolio.  Having a risk-free asset to invest in allows the target rate of return to be reached with lower risk.

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CFA 1.

E(r) = 0.50 * (15) + 0.40 * (10) + 0.10 * (6)  = 12.1

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Chapter 7

4.  E(ri) = rf + βi [E(rM) - rf ]

 E(r$1) = 4 + 1.5 (6) = 13%

  E(r$5) = 4 + 1.0 (6) = 10%

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5.

$1 Discount Store is overpriced because the forecasted return is less than the fair return (12% < 13%).

Everything $5 is underpriced because the forecasted return is greater than the fair return (11% > 10%).

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9.

20 = 5 + βP (15 - 5) => βP = 1.5

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CFA 2.

a.

E(ri) = rf + βi [E(rM) - rf ]

E(rX) = 5.0 + 0.8 [14.0 - 5.0] = 12.2

Forecasted return = 14.0 => α = 14.0 - 12.2 = +1.8

E(rY) = 5.0 + 1.5 [14.0 - 5.0] = 18.5

Forecasted return = 17.0 => α = 17.0 - 18.5 = -1.5

b.  Skip