||Index of Leading Economic
The index for San Diego County that
includes the components listed below (October)
Source: University of San Diego
|- 1.2 %
Residential units authorized by building
permits in San Diego County (October)
Source: Construction Industry Research
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
in San Diego County, inverted (October)
Source: Employment Development Department
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (October)
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
An index of consumer confidence in San
Diego County (October)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
||Help Wanted Advertising
An index of print and online help wanted advertising in
San Diego (October)
Source: Monster Worldwide, San Diego Union-Tribune
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (October)
Source: The Conference Board
The outlook for the local economy remains unchanged: Weak job growth and
continued pressure on the housing market through at least the first half of
2008. The housing market may bottom out
in the latter half of next year, but a rebound in prices is not expected to
begin until 2009. A recession in the
local economy is possible, but not likely, as San Diego has few of the
industries that are severely impacted by an economic
downturn, such as auto and steel production.
Also helping is that defense and tourism dollars continue to flow into
the local economy at all points in the business cycle, even when things are
The trend in residential units authorized by building permits remains
negative in response to the weak housing market.
This has negative implications in terms of employment in construction and
will adversely affect sales of housing-related products such as furniture,
appliances, and home improvement items. . . Both labor market variables continue
to be weak. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance have risen to more than 14,000 a month, compared to a
low of less than 10,000 for several months in late 2005 and early 2006.
In terms of the hiring side of the market, help wanted advertising
was down for the 14th consecutive month, with weakness in both print
and online advertising. The net
impact was a local unemployment rate of 4.8 percent for the third month in a row
in October. . . Already weakened by bad news from the housing market, local
consumer confidence suffered another blow as gasoline prices surged.
Local consumer confidence has fallen more than 23 percent from the yearly
high reached in January, and is at the lowest level since March 2003 . . .
Local stock prices shrugged off all the negative news to edge up slightly in
October. . . Despite the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators
turning down once again and worries of a recession, the preliminary estimate for
GDP growth in the third quarter was a strong 4.9 percent.
This follows a solid 3.8 percent growth rate in the second quarter.
decrease puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for
San Diego County
at 131.8, down from September's revised reading of 133.5. Although there were
revisions in building permits and the national Index of Leading Economic
Indicators for September, there was no impact on the previously reported change
of -1.0 percent for the month.
Please visit the Website address given below to see the revised changes for the
individual components. The values
for the USD Index for the last year are given below:
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators, please contact: