Recession-Proof Economy? 2003
Outlook		 Residential
Outlook		 Conclusion

A Recession-Proof Economy?

Only four years of negative job growth in San Diego County in the last 30 years

San Diego County Wage and Salary Employment, (1972 - 2001)

Year Employment Change Year Employment Change
1972 425,300   1987 851,000 + 44,800
1973 454,800 + 29,500 1988 901,500 + 50,500
1974 470,000 + 15,200 1989 938,000 + 36,500
1975 478,400 + 8,400 1990 966,600 + 28,600
1976 501,900 + 23,500 1991 962,600 - 4,000
1977 544,800 + 42,900 1992 947,800 - 14,800
1978 599,300 + 54,500 1993 947,200 - 600
1979 636,700 + 37,400 1994 955,300 + 8,100
1980 650,200 + 13,500 1995 978,600 + 23,300
1981 665,900 + 15,700 1996 1,006,200 + 27,600
1982 662,500 - 3,400 1997 1,054,200 + 48,000
1983 674,700 + 12,200 1998 1,105,500 + 51,300
1984 721,100 + 46,400 1999 1,152,900 + 47,400
1985 768,600 + 47,500 2000 1,193,800 + 40,900
1986 806,200 + 37,600 2001 1,221,600 + 27,800

Due to:
  • Few if any of the traditional cyclical industries
  • Few corporate headquarters
  • Military spending - personnel, manufacturing, R&D, retirement
  • Natural growth

Implications:

  • Positive job growth in the local economy even in slow economic times
  • Negative job growth only if there is some strong external shock

For more information, please contact:

Professor Alan Gin 
School of Business Administration 
University of San Diego 
5998 Alcalá Park 
San Diego, CA 92110 		 TEL: (619) 260-4883 

FAX: (619) 501-2954 

E-mail: agin@cox.net