Recession-Proof Economy? 2003
Outlook		 Residential
Outlook		 Conclusion

Residential Outlook

Demand adversely affected
  • Slow job growth
  • Drop in consumer confidence
  • Increase in mortgage rates; still low

Supply still a problem

  • 14,200 residential units to be authorized in 2002 - down 9% from 2001, lowest in 4 years
  • 14,500 residential units authorized forecasted for 2003

 

Employment and Required Housing

Year

Employment
Change

 Required
Housing

Actual
Permits

+Surplus
-Shortfall
1991 - 4,000 -3,100 7,908 + 11,008
1992 - 14,800 - 11,600 6,059 + 17,659
1993 - 600 - 500 5,602 + 6,102
1994 + 8,100 + 6,400 6,935 + 535
1995 + 23,300 + 18,300 6,608 - 11,692
1996 + 27,600 + 21,700 6,868 - 14,832
1997 + 48,000 + 37,700 11,402 - 26,298
1998 + 51,300 + 40,300 12,173 - 28,127
1999 + 47,400 + 37,200 16,427 - 20,773
2000 + 40,900 + 32,100 15,927 - 16,173
2001 + 27,800 + 21,800 15,650 - 6,150
2002

+23,200

+18,200

14,234

-3,966
Total

+278,200

+218,500

+125,793

-92,707

  • Moderate price appreciation expected in 2003
  • Supply problems will prevent a severe downturn in prices
  • Difficulty at the low and high ends of the market

For more information, please contact:

Professor Alan Gin 
School of Business Administration 
University of San Diego 
5998 Alcalá Park 
San Diego, CA 92110 		 TEL: (619) 260-4883 

FAX: (619) 501-2954 

E-mail: agin@cox.net