||Index of Leading Economic
The index for San Diego County that
includes the components listed below (May)
Source: University of San Diego
|- 0.5 %
Residential units authorized by building
permits in San Diego County (May)
Source: Construction Industry Research
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
in San Diego County, inverted (May
Source: Employment Development Department
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (May)
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
An index of consumer confidence in San
Diego County (May)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
||Help Wanted Advertising
An index of help wanted advertising in the
San Diego Union-Tribune (May)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (May)
Source: The Conference Board
May's decrease was the fifth in a row
for the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators, and was the largest monthly
decline since October 2002 (after a revision of the April numbers).
Although the breadth of the decline continues to be negative, it actually
improved a bit, with two components positive in May compared with only one
gainer in the previous three months. The
bottom line is that the outlook for the local economy remains weak.
This sluggishness is expected materialize sometime in the second half of
2005 and carry over at least to the beginning of 2006. Job growth now looks to
be in the 15,000 to 20,000 range for 2005, compared with the previous forecast
of more than 20,000 jobs created.
Volatility continues in terms of residential units authorized by building
permits. After being down in
April compared to the previous month, a surge in multi-family units authorized
in May pushed residential units authorized into positive territory once again. .
. The labor market variables have both turned negative.
The trend in initial claims for unemployment insurance has now
been negative for six consecutive months, which is an indication of an uptick in
job losses locally. And help
wanted advertising has turned negative again, signaling weakness on the
hiring side of the market. Even so,
the unemployment rate in San Diego dropped below the 4.0% mark to hit 3.8% in
May. . . Consumer confidence remains weak.
One concern is that the drop in consumer confidence will adversely affect
the housing market, as households may be more wary to take on large amounts of
debt when they are concerned about their job and income circumstances. . . Local
stock prices rallied along with the rest of the stock market in May.
Small capitalization stocks, which make up a significant portion of the
local stock index and local economy, did particularly well, as evidenced by the
7.6% increase in the Nasdaq Composite Index for the month. . . The outlook for
the national economy remains negative. The
Conference Board reports that only one component in its ten component national
Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose in May.
A weak national economy has negative implications for local firms selling
inputs and final products on a nationwide basis, as well as for the local
decrease puts the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at
141.2, down from April's revised reading of 141.9.
Revisions in building permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance,
and the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators caused the previously
reported change of -0.5% in April to be revised to -0.4%.
Please visit the Index of Leading Economic Indicators Website at the
address below to get the values for the revised components.
The values for the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego
County for the last year are given below:
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators, please contact: