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Note: Problems caused by the events of September 11, 2001 delayed the release of this report.
| October 19, 2001 --The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 0.8 percent in June. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, local stock prices, consumer confidence, and help wanted advertising were all down sharply during the month. Building permits also declined, but to a lesser extent. For the fourth consecutive month, the outlook for the national economy was the only positive indicator. |
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Index of Leading Economic
Indicators The index for San Diego County that includes the components listed below (July) Source: University of San Diego |
- 0.8 % |
 |
Building Permits
Residential units authorized by building permits in San Diego County (July) Source: Construction Industry Research Board |
- 0.31% |
 |
Unemployment Insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego County, inverted (July) Source: Employment Development Department |
- 1.32% |
 |
Stock Prices San Diego Stock Exchange Index (July) Source: San Diego Daily Transcript |
- 1.09% |
 |
Consumer Confidence
An index of consumer confidence in San Diego County (July) Source: San Diego Union-Tribune |
- 1.19% |
 |
Help Wanted Advertising
An index of help wanted advertising in the San Diego Union-Tribune (July) Source: Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce |
- 1.64% |
 |
National Economy
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (July) Source: The Conference Board |
+ 0.49% |
With July’s decrease, the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators has now fallen for six months in a row, and it has not been positive in the last 14 months. The decline continues to be broad, with five of the six components down during the month. Local unemployment has edged up slightly to 3.4% for both July and August, but remains strong relative to the state and national economies. The outlook continues to be for a slowing of growth in the local economy for the rest of 2001 and into the first half of 2002, but with a positive result for both years as a whole.
July's decrease puts the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 138.2, down from June’s revised reading of 139.4. An upward revision in building permits caused the previously reported change of –1.1% in June to be revised upward to –1.0%. The fluctuations of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County for the last year are given below:
| Index | % Change | ||
| 2000 | JUL | 150.3 | -0.3% |
| AUG | 149.6 | -0.5% | |
| SEP | 149.0 | -0.4% | |
| OCT | 148.3 | -0.5% | |
| NOV | 147.5 | -0.6% | |
| DEC | 146.8 | -0.4% | |
| 2001 | JAN | 146.8 | +0.0% |
| FEB | 146.2 | -0.4% | |
| MAR | 144.6 | -1.2% | |
| APR | 142.6 | -1.4% | |
| MAY | 140.8 | -1.3% | |
| JUN | 139.4 | -1.0% | |
| JUL | 138.2 | -0.8% |
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators, please contact:
| Professor Alan Gin
School of Business Administration University of San Diego 5998 Alcalá Park San Diego, CA 92110 |
TEL: (619) 260-4883 FAX: (619) 501-2954 E-mail: agin@home.com |