Leading Indicators Up in March

	Index of Leading Economic Indicators  The index for San Diego County that includes the components listed below (March)  Source: University of San Diego	+ 0.5 %
	Building Permits  Residential units authorized by building permits in San Diego County (March)  Source: Construction Industry Research Board	- 0.35%
	Unemployment Insurance  Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego County, inverted (March)  Source: Employment Development Department	- 0.14%
	Stock Prices  San Diego Stock Exchange Index (March)  Source: San Diego Daily Transcript	+ 1.16%
	Consumer Confidence  An index of consumer confidence in San Diego County (March)  Source: San Diego Union-Tribune	+ 1.86%
	Help Wanted Advertising  An index of help wanted advertising in the San Diego Union-Tribune (March)  Source: Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce	+ 0.26%
	National Economy  Index of Leading Economic Indicators (March)  Source: The Conference Board	+ 0.11%

March’s gain was the fourth consecutive monthly increase in the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators. The breadth of the advance was good, with four components up and only two down. The outlook for the local economy remains unchanged from what has been indicated in previous months: some rough spots for the rest of the first half of 2002 with better news in the second half. Despite the rough spots, the economy of San Diego County is projected to outperform the state and national economies throughout 2002.

Highlights: Residential units authorized by building permits totaled 3,967 in the first quarter of 2002, compared with 4,005 in the same period in 2001, a decline of roughly 1%. Multi-family residential units authorized continue to be up for the year while single-family units are down. . . A total of 51,821 initial claims for unemployment insurance were filed in the first quarter of 2002, an increase of more than 26% over the 40,917 claims filed in the first quarter of 2001. In terms of the hiring side of the labor market, help wanted advertising was down almost 30% in the first quarter for 2002 compared to 2001. However, the gain in March broke a string of 12 consecutive monthly decreases in that component. The unemployment rate for San Diego County was 3.9% in March, which is up from the 2.6% rate for March 2001. . . Local stock prices rebounded in March to finish the first quarter up a little over 1% for the year and up nearly 9% from 2001. . . Local consumer confidence increased by more than 10% in the first quarter and is up nearly 20% from a year ago, despite a sharp drop after September 11. . . The national Index of Leading Economic Indicators advanced slightly in March. The national index has not decreased in six months.

March's decrease puts the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 138.9, up from February’s reading of 138.9. There was no revision of the previously reported change of +0.3% for February. The values for the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County for the last year are given below:

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