Leading Indicators Down in July

Note: Problems caused by the events of September 11, 2001 delayed the release of this report.

October 19, 2001 --The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 0.8 percent in June. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, local stock prices, consumer confidence, and help wanted advertising were all down sharply during the month. Building permits also declined, but to a lesser extent. For the fourth consecutive month, the outlook for the national economy was the only positive indicator.
The USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators is published under the auspices of the School of Business Administration's Real Estate Institute. For more information about the Institute, please visit its Website at http://realestate.sandiego.edu

Index of Leading Economic Indicators 
The index for San Diego County that includes the components listed below (July) 
Source: University of San Diego 
- 0.8 % 
Building Permits 
Residential units authorized by building permits in San Diego County (July) 
Source: Construction Industry Research Board 
- 0.31% 
Unemployment Insurance 
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego County, inverted (July) 
Source: Employment Development Department 
- 1.32% 
Stock Prices 
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (July) 
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript 
- 1.09%
Consumer Confidence 
An index of consumer confidence in San Diego County (July) 
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
- 1.19% 
Help Wanted Advertising 
An index of help wanted advertising in the San Diego Union-Tribune (July) 
Source: Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce 
- 1.64% 
National Economy 
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (July) 
Source: The Conference Board 
+ 0.49% 

With July’s decrease, the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators has now fallen for six months in a row, and it has not been positive in the last 14 months. The decline continues to be broad, with five of the six components down during the month. Local unemployment has edged up slightly to 3.4% for both July and August, but remains strong relative to the state and national economies. The outlook continues to be for a slowing of growth in the local economy for the rest of 2001 and into the first half of 2002, but with a positive result for both years as a whole.

July's decrease puts the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 138.2, down from June’s revised reading of 139.4. An upward revision in building permits caused the previously reported change of –1.1% in June to be revised upward to –1.0%. The fluctuations of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County for the last year are given below:

    Index  % Change 
2000 JUL 150.3 -0.3%
  AUG 149.6 -0.5%
  SEP 149.0 -0.4%
  OCT 148.3 -0.5%
  NOV 147.5 -0.6%
  DEC 146.8 -0.4%
2001 JAN 146.8 +0.0%
  FEB 146.2 -0.4%
  MAR 144.6 -1.2%
  APR 142.6 -1.4%
  MAY 140.8 -1.3%
  JUN 139.4 -1.0%
  JUL 138.2 -0.8%

For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators, please contact:

Professor Alan Gin 
School of Business Administration 
University of San Diego 
5998 Alcalá Park 
San Diego, CA 92110 
TEL: (619) 260-4883 

FAX: (619) 501-2954 

E-mail: agin@home.com