||Index of Leading Economic
The index for San Diego County that
includes the components listed below (June)
Source: University of San Diego
|+ 0.0 %
Residential units authorized by building
permits in San Diego County (June)
Source: Construction Industry Research
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
in San Diego County, inverted (June)
Source: Employment Development Department
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (June)
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
An index of consumer confidence in San
Diego County (June)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
||Help Wanted Advertising
An index of help wanted advertising in the
San Diego Union-Tribune (June)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (June)
Source: The Conference Board
June's unchanged reading broke a string of five consecutive
decreases in the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
Revisions in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators (see
below) resulted in the magnitudes of the previously reported declines being less
than what was initially indicated. While
the outlook for the local economy is not strong, it is not as negative as was
thought in recent months. The
forecast is for continued slow to moderate growth for the rest of 2005.
Residential units authorized by building permits again slipped to the
downside in June. For the first half of 2005, residential units authorized were
down 2% compared to the same period in 2004.
While multifamily units authorized were up nearly 11% in the first half,
single family units authorized were down more than 11% during the period. . .
The labor market variables are mixed. While
initial claims for unemployment insurance are positive, help wanted
advertising continues to drop. So
while job loss is relatively low, hiring has not picked up to a significant
degree. For seasonal reasons (end of
the school year), the unemployment rate in San Diego increased to 4.4% in June
from 3.8% in May. . . Consumer confidence continues to decline.
Compared to the same point in 2004, consumer confidence is down nearly
11%. This remains a concern, as
consumer spending is typically two-thirds of economic activity. . . The
increase in local stock prices in June bucked the trend in the national
markets, which saw the Standard and Poor's down a tiny amount and the Nasdaq
Composite Index off roughly a half of a percent during the month. . . The national
Index of Leading Economic Indicators registered its sharpest increase of the
year. For June, the keeper of the
national index, The Conference Board, announced changes in the methodology used
to calculate the index. The result
is that the outlook for the national economy is more positive than what was
indicated previously, with a corresponding positive impact on the local index.
Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County stood at 142.0 in
June, unchanged from the same revised reading in May.
Revisions in initial claims for unemployment insurance and and the
national Index of Leading Economic Indicators caused the previously reported
change of -0.5% in May to be revised to -0.1%.
Please visit the Index of Leading Economic Indicators Website at the
address below to get the values for the revised components.
The values for the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego
County for the last year are given below:
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators, please contact: