||Index of Leading Economic
The index for San Diego County that
includes the components listed below (December)
Source: University of San Diego
|- 1.0 %
Residential units authorized by building
permits in San Diego County (December)
Source: Construction Industry Research
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
in San Diego County, inverted (December)
Source: Employment Development Department
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (December)
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
An index of consumer confidence in San
Diego County (December)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
||Help Wanted Advertising
An index of print and online help wanted advertising in
San Diego (December)
Source: Monster Worldwide, San Diego Union-Tribune
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (December)
Source: The Conference Board
decline was the fourth large drop (one percent or more) in the last five months,
and the Index has now fallen in 20 of the last 21 months.
Although the local economy is not in a recession in the sense that there
has been a loss of jobs or a drop in Gross Regional Product,
economic activity has slowed
considerably. Initial data for 2007
shows an increase of 10,700 jobs for the year, compared to a gain of 17,800 jobs
in 2006, and the unemployment rate is approaching 5 percent.
Combined with slow housing sales and a surge in foreclosures, we are
probably in the San Diego-equivalent of a recession at this point.
That weakness is expected to continue for most of 2008, with a projected
job gain of only 5,000 - 8,000 for the year.
Despite a gain in December, residential units authorized by building permits
declined by 31 percent in 2007 compared to 2006.
Both single-family units (down 26 percent) and multi-family units (down
35 percent) were hurt by the slump. . . The labor market variables continue to
be weak, with both initial claims for unemployment insurance and help
wanted advertising in long and
deep slides. The net impact was that
the local unemployment rate edged up to 4.9 percent in December, a sharp rise
from the 3.7 percent unemployment rate in December 2006. . . Local consumer
confidence fell for the eighth month in a row as bad news about the housing
market and foreclosures dominated the news.
Local consumer confidence finished the year down almost 22 percent . . .
Although the stock market has slumped considerably in January, local
stock prices were off just slightly in December. . . The national Index
of Leading Economic Indicators fell for the third straight month in
December. Economists consider three
consecutive monthly changes in one direction as a sign of a potential turning
point in the economy, so this suggests a possible downturn in the national
economy. One sign of this is that
the growth rate of GDP was an anemic 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter compared
to 4.9 percent in the third quarter.
decrease puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for
San Diego County
at 128.8, down from November=s
reading of 130.0. Revisions in building permits, initial claims for unemployment
insurance and the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators impacted the
value of the Index and the monthly changes for every month going back to July.
Please visit the Website address given below to see the revised changes
for the individual components. The
values for the USD Index for the last year are given below:
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators, please contact: