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Leading Economic Indicators
Down in December
January 31, 2007 -- The
University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego
County fell 0.4 percent in December after falling 0.3 percent in November.
Three components -- initial claims for unemployment insurance, building permits,
and help wanted advertising -- were down during the month, with the latter two
down sharply. On the positive side, consumer confidence and the outlook for the
national economy were up moderately. Local stock prices were virtually
unchanged, although with a slight positive bias.
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Index of Leading Economic
Indicators
The index for San Diego County that
includes the components listed below (December)
Source: University of San Diego |
- 0.4 % |
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Building Permits
Residential units authorized by building
permits in San Diego County (December)
Source: Construction Industry Research
Board |
- 1.66% |
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Unemployment Insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
in San Diego County, inverted (December)
Source: Employment Development Department |
- 0.40% |
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Stock Prices
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (December)
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript |
+ 0.02% |
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Consumer Confidence
An index of consumer confidence in San
Diego County (December)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune |
+ 0.82% |
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Help Wanted Advertising
An index of print and online help wanted advertising in
San Diego (December)
Source: Monster Worldwide, San Diego Union-Tribune |
- 1.46% |
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National Economy
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (December)
Source: The Conference Board |
+ 0.56% |
With decreases in November and December, the USD
Index of Leading Economic Indicators has now fallen for nine months in a row.
The last four months have seen the same three components B building permits,
initial claims for unemployment insurance, and help wanted -- down while the
others were up or unchanged. As mentioned in previous reports, continued
weakness in the housing market is likely to negatively impact the local economy
and labor market at least through the first half of 2007, with job growth of
12,000 - 15,000 expected for the year.
Highlights:
Building permits ended the year on a sour note which left residential
units authorized down nearly 30 percent for the year as a whole. The 10,767
residential units authorized in 2006 was the lowest annual total since 1996.
Most of the damage occurred in the single-family sector, where permits were down
40 percent compared to 2005. Multi-family permits fared a little better, but
were still down roughly 18 percent for the year. . . For the fourth consecutive
month, both labor market variables were down. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance were negative for the ninth month in a row, matching
the decline in the overall Index. Help wanted advertising took a
particularly hard hit as both print and online advertising dropped in December.
This was the first time that the trend in online advertising has turned negative
since Monster.com began releasing the data in May of 2005. Part of the reason
for this is that help wanted advertising is traditionally weak in December and
there has not been enough data released yet to seasonally adjust it. A more
fundamental problem was that advertising in the architecture and engineering
category was down, probably as a result of the slowdown in housing
construction. Despite this, seasonal hiring dropped the unemployment rate from
a low 3.9 percent in November to an even lower 3.7 percent in December. . .
Offsetting slightly the weakness in the labor market variables was a modest four
month increase in consumer confidence, which continues to be boosted by
falling gas prices. . . Local stock prices were relatively flat the last
two months despite continued strength in other market averages. . . The
national Index of Leading Economic Indicators showed some strength in
December. Initial indications are that the Christmas shopping season went well
for retailers.
The decreases in November and December put the
USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 139.9, down
from October's revised reading of 140.7. Revisions in building permits and the
national Index of Leading Economic Indicators caused the previously reported
change of -0.1 percent for October to be adjusted downward to -0.2 percent. A
late revision in the national Index for May affected the previously reported
values of the local Index from that month on, but not the monthly changes. The
values for the USD Index for the last year are given below:
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators, please contact:
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