acquisition problems delayed the release of this report.
September 18, 2002 --The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 0.5 percent in June. Building permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance, and local stock prices were down sharply during the month, and there was a small decline in the outlook for the national economy as well. The only positive moves were in consumer confidence and help wanted advertising.
|Index of Leading Economic
The index for San Diego County that includes the components listed below (June)
Source: University of San Diego
|- 0.5 %|
Residential units authorized by building permits in San Diego County (June)
Source: Construction Industry Research Board
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego County, inverted (June)
Source: Employment Development Department
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (June)
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
An index of consumer confidence in San Diego County (June)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
|Help Wanted Advertising
An index of help wanted advertising in the San Diego Union-Tribune (June)
Source: Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (June)
Source: The Conference Board
Junes drop was the third straight month that the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators has declined. Since economists usually look for three consecutive changes in a leading index as sign of a turning point in an economy, and since the majority of the components are now solidly negative, the outlook for the local economy looks rocky. The local economy is likely to be sluggish for the rest of 2002, with a return to strong growth delayed to be beginning of 2003 at the earliest.
Highlights: Residential units authorized by building permits finished the first half of 2002 down 12% from the same period in the previous year. Both single-family and multi-family units authorized are now down from 2001 levels. . . The rate of job loss continues to be a problem. Initial claims for unemployment insurance are up more than 33% through the second quarter compared to the previous year. On the other side of the labor market, hiring plans are up, as help wanted advertising increased for the fourth month in a row. The extra hiring was not enough to offset the job losses and the addition of summer job-seekers to the workforce, and the unemployment rate for June pushed above the 4% mark to 4.2%. . . Local stock prices fell for the second month in a row in June. . . Consumer confidence rose for the seventh consecutive month in June. . . After a strong move in May, the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell back into negative territory in June.
June's decrease puts the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 137.5, down from Mays revised reading of 138.3. The previously reported change of -0.3% for May was revised to -0.2% due to revisions in building permits and the outlook for the national economy. There were also changes in the values and the changes for most months of 2002, but no significant trends were changed. The values for the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County for the last year are given below:
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators, please contact:
|Professor Alan Gin
School of Business Administration
University of San Diego
5998 Alcalá Park
San Diego, CA 92110
|TEL: (619) 260-4883
FAX: (619) 501-2954