Leading Economic Indicators
in September and October
14, 2005 -- The University of San Diego's
Index of Leading Economic Indicators for
was down in the two latest reporting periods, September and October.
Components down in both months were building permits, consumer
confidence, and help wanted advertising. The
only component that was positive in both months was initial claims for
unemployment insurance. There were
mixed results as far as local stock prices and the outlook for the national
economy was concerned.
||Index of Leading Economic
The index for San Diego County that
includes the components listed below (October)
Source: University of San Diego
|- 0.1 %
Residential units authorized by building
permits in San Diego County (October)
Source: Construction Industry Research
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
in San Diego County, inverted (October)
Source: Employment Development Department
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (October)
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
An index of consumer confidence in San
Diego County (October)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
||Help Wanted Advertising
An index of help wanted advertising in the
San Diego Union-Tribune (October)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (October)
Source: The Conference Board
declines in September and October mean the USD Index has now declined for three
months in a row. However, other than
a big drop in September, there has not been a significant change in the Index since May.
changed in either direction by only 0.1 percent in five of the last six months.
The implication is that the economy is basically on a stable trajectory
at this point. The forecast is that
San Diego County is likely to experience continued economic growth for the year
ahead, although the may be a little slower than in recent years.
The forecast is for job growth of roughly 17,500, with the local
unemployment rate to edge up slightly to 4.5 percent.
Residential units authorized by building permits plunged in October.
The 634 units authorized for the month was the lowest level since March
1997. Through October, residential
units authorized were down almost four percent compared to the same period in
2004. . . The labor market variables remain mixed.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance has been the most
consistent positive component in the USD Index, having been up now for six
months in a row. This has been
offset by a downturn in help wanted advertising, which has been down for
exactly the same period. The net
result is a relative stable local unemployment rate of 4.4% for October. . . Local
stock prices dipped in October, which broke a modest five month winning
streak. . . Consumer confidence continues to exert a strong negative
influence, having fallen now for 10 consecutive months.
The consumer confidence index calculated by the San Diego Union-Tribune is down nearly 20% on a year-to-year basis.
As the latest survey (October) was taken during the heat of special
election campaign, the political turmoil surrounding the City of San Diego
probably had an impact in terms of the negative local outlook by consumers.
It remains to be seen whether the election of a new mayor can turn that
situation around. . . The outlook for the national economy was very erratic
during September and October, with a big drop in the national Index of
Leading Economic Indicators in September, followed by a big jump in that
component in October. The national
economy overall appears to be in good health, with the GDP in the third quarter
growing at a solid 4.3 percent rate.
for the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County for the last
year are given below:
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators, please contact: