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Leading Economic Indicators
(January - June 2006)
September 6, 2006
-- 2006 started off on a solid note, with gains in each month of the first
quarter. The situation abruptly
turned negative in the second quarter, with every component negative in both
April and May. The 0.7 percent drop
in May was the largest monthly decline since October 2002.
As a result, a slowing in the local economy is expected towards the end
of 2005 and spilling over into 2006. A
full-scale recession is not expected, but the rate of job growth and economic
activity will be adversely affected.
Two things have delayed the release of any data for 2006 until this point.
First, as has been the case previously, there was some difficulty getting
data on a timely basis. To
eliminate this problem in the future, estimates will be used for any variables
that don't
come in on a timely basis. You will
also be able to view the data as it comes in by going to the Website address
given below.
The second reason for a delay involves a change in one of the components
in the Index, namely, help wanted advertising.
With the advent of the Internet, more job listings are being posted
online. To deal with this, the help
wanted advertising component is now an equally weighted mix of the original data
on advertising in the San Diego
Union-Tribune and online advertising as measured by Monster Worldwide.
The problem was that the Monster Worldwide local employment index for San
Diego was only available starting in May 2005.
The data will remain volatile until there is enough data to establish
seasonal adjustment factors. But
this new methodology of calculating help wanted advertising should give a better
indication of local hiring plans than the old methodology.
The revised data on help wanted advertising meant that the Index
performed better at the end of 2005 than was previously reported.
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Index of Leading Economic
Indicators
The index for San Diego County that
includes the components listed below (June)
Source: University of San Diego |
- 0.2 % |
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Building Permits
Residential units authorized by building
permits in San Diego County (June)
Source: Construction Industry Research
Board |
+ 1.70% |
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Unemployment Insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
in San Diego County, inverted (June)
Source: Employment Development Department |
- 1.55% |
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Stock Prices
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (June)
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript |
- 1.06% |
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Consumer Confidence
An index of consumer confidence in San
Diego County (June)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune |
- 0.06% |
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Help Wanted Advertising
An index of help wanted advertising in the
San Diego Union-Tribune (June)
Source: Monster
Worldwide, San Diego Union-Tribune |
- 0.47% |
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National Economy
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (June)
Source: The Conference Board |
+ 0.28% |
The values for the Index of Leading
Economic Indicators for San Diego County for the last year are given below:
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators, please contact:
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