||Index of Leading Economic
The index for San Diego County that
includes the components listed below (February)
Source: University of San Diego
|- 1.1 %
Residential units authorized by building
permits in San Diego County (February)
Source: Construction Industry Research
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
in San Diego County, inverted, estimated (February)
Source: Employment Development Department
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (February)
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
An index of consumer confidence in San
Diego County (February)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
||Help Wanted Advertising
An index of online help wanted advertising in
San Diego (February)
Source: Monster Worldwide
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (February)
Source: The Conference Board
decrease, the USD Index has now fallen in 22 of the last 23 months, with the
declines in the last five months being relatively severe.
While there has not been a massive loss of jobs as was the case in the
early 1990s, job growth has come to a virtual standstill, with only 300 more
jobs countywide in February compared to the year before.
The weak housing market
remains the culprit, with more than 13,000 jobs lost in real estate-related
sectors compared to a year ago. The
continued sharp declines in the Leading Indicators indicate no turnaround in
sight at the current time.
After falling in 2007 to their lowest level since 1996, residential units
authorized by building permits stumbled out of the gate in 2008.
The 146 single-family units authorized in February were the lowest number
in a month since November 1992. . . The labor market variables were mixed in
both January and February.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped after a big surge in
October and November, indicating at least a temporary slowing in the rate of job
loss locally. On the hiring side of
the labor, help wanted advertising continued to fall, as employers become
cautious in the face of a slowing economy.
Due to structural changes in the help wanted advertising market, this
component will now only consider Monster.com's measure of online advertising.
The net impact was that the local unemployment rate hit and topped the 5
percent level in each of the last three months. . . Local consumer confidence
fell to its lowest level since the San Diego Union-Tribune started
gathering the data in 1996. Their
index has fallen nearly 40 percent from the year-ago level . . .
The weakness in the financial markets affected local stock prices
heavily in January and to a lesser extent in February.
. . February's
decline in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators was the
fifth in a row for that component.
More and more macroeconomic data suggests that the national economy is headed
towards a recession, if it is not already in one.
Among other things, payroll employment has fallen by 85,000 jobs in the
first two months of 2008. It remains
to be seen whether the unprecedented action by the Federal Reserve in
drastically reducing interest rate will be enough to turn the national economy
decrease puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for
San Diego County
at 125.1, down from January's
reading of 126.5. Revisions in building permits, initial claims for unemployment
insurance and the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators impacted the
value of the Index and the monthly changes for the months August through
December. Please visit the Website
address given below to see the revised changes for the individual components.
The values for the USD Index for the last year are given below:
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators, please contact: