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| February 7, 2002 -- The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County fell 0.6 percent in November. Sharp drops in help wanted advertising and initial claims for unemployment insurance led the move to the downside. Consumer confidence was down slightly, while building permits were virtually unchanged, although with a slight negative bias. On the positive side, there were solid gains in local stock prices and the outlook for the national economy. |
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Index of Leading Economic
Indicators The index for San Diego County that includes the components listed below (December) Source: University of San Diego |
- 0.5 % |
 |
Building Permits
Residential units authorized by building permits in San Diego County (December) Source: Construction Industry Research Board |
- 0.08% |
 |
Unemployment Insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego County, inverted (December) Source: Employment Development Department |
- 1.46% |
 |
Stock Prices San Diego Stock Exchange Index (December) Source: San Diego Daily Transcript |
+ 0.96% |
 |
Consumer Confidence
An index of consumer confidence in San Diego County (December) Source: San Diego Union-Tribune |
- 0.28% |
 |
Help Wanted Advertising
An index of help wanted advertising in the San Diego Union-Tribune (December) Source: Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce |
- 2.92% |
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National Economy
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (December) Source: The Conference Board |
+ 0.82% |
With November’s decline, the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators has now fallen for ten consecutive months. The breadth of the decline remains mixed, with three components down, two up, and one basically unchanged. The outlook for the local economy remains for some rough spots in the local economy through the first half of 2002 and a resumption of moderate growth in the second half of the year.
Highlights: A revision in residential units authorized by building permits led to that component being positive in October instead of the previously reported decline. The slight decline reported in November is from the newly reported level. . . Initial claims for unemployment insurance continued to rise in November (a negative for the Index) following the severe weakness of October. . . Help wanted advertising plunged to its lowest absolute level since December 1993. On a seasonally adjusted basis, help wanted advertising reached its lowest level since March 1983. . . Despite the weakness in both labor market variables, the local unemployment remains low at 3.3% for December. . . Local stock prices continued their recovery from the big sell off after the September 11 attacks. . . After increasing for three months in a row, consumer confidence resumed its turned negative. . . The national Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased for a second straight month, the largest gain since May.
November's decrease puts the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 136.6, down from October’s revised reading of 137.3. Revisions in building permits for October led to the change in that component being revised from -0.34 to +0.47, while the change in the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators was revised downward from +0.49 to +0.16. The net result is that the change for the overall Index for October is now -0.5%, up from the previously reported change of -0.6%. The values for the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County for the last year are given below:
| Index | % Change | ||
| 2000 | NOV | 147.5 | -0.6% |
| DEC | 146.9 | -0.4% | |
| 2001 | JAN | 147.2 | +0.2% |
| FEB | 147.0 | -0.2% | |
| MAR | 145.3 | -1.1% | |
| APR | 143.7 | -1.2% | |
| MAY | 142.5 | -0.8% | |
| JUN | 141.1 | -1.0% | |
| JUL | 140.0 | -0.7% | |
| AUG | 139.3 | -0.5% | |
| SEP | 138.1 | -0.9% | |
| OCT | 137.3 | -0.5% | |
| NOV | 136.6 | -0.5% |
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators, please contact:
| Professor Alan Gin
School of Business Administration University of San Diego 5998 Alcalá Park San Diego, CA 92110 |
TEL: (619) 260-4883 FAX: (619) 501-2954 E-mail: agin@home.com |