||Index of Leading Economic
The index for San Diego County that
includes the components listed below (March)
Source: University of San Diego
|- 1.4 %
Residential units authorized by building
permits in San Diego County (March)
Source: Construction Industry Research
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego
County, inverted (March)
Source: Employment Development Department
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (March)
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
An index of consumer confidence in San
Diego County (March)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
||Help Wanted Advertising
An index of online help wanted advertising in
San Diego (March)
Source: Monster Worldwide
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (March)
Source: The Conference Board
The outlook for the local economy is for continued weakness
for the rest of 2008, with job growth flat or even negative.
Data for March shows employment down 1,700 jobs compared to the same
month in 2007, the first negative year-to-year job comparison since July 1993.
The weak housing market was the chief cause of the decline, with more
than 14,000 jobs lost in real estate-related sectors (construction, real estate,
and lending). Whether this is the
start of a negative trend or just a one month aberration remains to be seen.
Construction plans, as measured by residential units authorized by building
permits, have virtually dried up in response to the weak housing market.
The 193 residential units authorized in March was the lowest monthly
total for building permits since November 1992.
Only eight multi-family units were authorized in March, which compares to
804 units authorized in the same month last year and which is the lowest number
authorized in a month since only four units were authorized in February 1995.
For the first quarter of 2008, total residential units authorized are
down more that 63 percent compared to the first quarter of 2007.
Single-family units authorized were down 48 percent while multi-family
units authorized were down nearly 74 percent.
What is particularly troubling is that 2007 was already the slowest year
for building permits since 1996. . . The labor market variables remain mixed.
After a post-holiday surge in January, initial claims for unemployment
insurance have edge downward, which indicates that mass layoffs are not
occurring locally. While job losses
are not widespread, the hiring side of the market remains weak, with help
wanted advertising now down 19 straight months.
The net result was the local unemployment rate rising to a five-year high
of 5.3 percent in March. . . Local consumer confidence suffered its
largest one month decline ever as gas prices hit record highs.
Combined with bad news on the housing and jobs market, local consumer
confidence is at an all-time low, down more than 40 percent from a year ago . .
. Local stock prices ended a four month losing streak by edging up
slightly in March. . . The national Index of Leading Economic Indicators
turned upward for the first time in six months.
But GDP numbers for the first quarter are likely to be negative, as the
national economy has lost jobs in each of the first three months of 2008.
decrease puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County
at 122.7, down from February's revised reading of 124.4. Revisions in initial
claims for unemployment insurance affected the value of the Index for both
January and February, as well as the previously reported changes for those
months. Please visit the Website
address given below to see the revised changes for the individual components.
The values for the USD Index for the last year are given below:
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators, please contact: