||Index of Leading Economic
The index for San Diego County that
includes the components listed below (April)
Source: University of San Diego
|- 1.4 %
Residential units authorized by building
permits in San Diego County (April)
Source: Construction Industry Research
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego
County, inverted (April)
Source: Employment Development Department
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (April)
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
An index of consumer confidence in San
Diego County (April)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
||Help Wanted Advertising
An index of online help wanted advertising in
San Diego (April)
Source: Monster Worldwide
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (April)
Source: The Conference Board
The outlook for the local economy
continues to be for weakness through the rest of the year and now likely into
the first part of 2009. The weakness
will be manifested in lower economic activity in areas such as retail and home
sales, and in a slow growth rate for employment.
in jobs compared to the previous year turned out to be an aberration, although
just barely, as employment in April was up a scant 2,700 compared to a year ago.
Job growth is now expected to be in the 0 to 2,500 range for the year as
Residential units authorized by building permits fell for the fourth
straight month in April. Residential
units are projected to total about 3,400 for the year at the current pace, which
would be the lowest yearly total since probably the 1960s.
One impact of this is a decrease of 9 percent or 7,900 jobs in
construction compared to a year ago, which is by far the largest job loss of any
sector of the local economy. The
drop in construction and home sales has affected other parts of the economy as
well, as employment has dropped in furniture and appliance stores and in
building materials (home improvement) stores. . . Both labor market variables
were negative. After a brief respite
in March, initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped in April,
which traditionally has been a low month in terms of claims.
The hiring side of the market continues to lag, as help wanted
advertising fell for the 20th straight month.
Despite the bad news on both sides of the labor market, local
unemployment rate edged downward to 5.0 percent from March's five-year high of
5.3 percent. . . Local consumer confidence continues to plunge, as bad
news continues to batter the psyche of local consumers.
Worries about inflation beyond gas prices can now be added to the mix of
bad economic news that includes the weak housing market, turmoil in the
financial markets, and high energy prices.
Even after seasonally adjusting, smoothing, and calibrating the data, the
5.66 percent drop in consumer confidence in April was the largest one month
change ever in any one component of the Index. . . Local stock prices
were up for the second month in a row, signaling some optimism in the financial
markets about the prospects for San Diego companies. . . The national Index
of Leading Economic Indicators edged upward for the second straight month.
Despite job losses in each of the first four months of 2008, GDP growth
was positive in the first quarter, albeit at an anemic rate of 0.6 percent.
decrease puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County
at 121.0, down from March's reading of 124.4. Despite some revisions in the
national Index of Leading Economic Indicators, there was no revision of the
previously reported changes of -1.4 percent for the month.
Please visit the Website address given below to see the revised changes
for the individual components. The
values for the USD Index for the last year are given below:
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators, please contact: