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Leading Economic Indicators
Up in December
Note:
The tentative release date for next month's report is February 24.
January 28, 2011 -- The
USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators
for San Diego County rose 0.4 percent in December. Sharp increases in local
stock prices and the outlook for the national economy pushed the USD Index to a
second consecutive gain after having been unchanged for three months in a row.
On the downside, building permits remain weak as construction activity continues
to lag. Local consumer confidence, initial claims for unemployment insurance,
and help wanted advertising were virtually unchanged, with the former slightly
positive and the latter two slightly negative.
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Index of Leading Economic
Indicators
The index for San Diego County that includes the
components listed below (December)
Source: USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate |
+ 0.4 % |
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Building Permits
Residential units
authorized by building permits in San Diego County (December)
Source: Construction Industry Research
Board |
- 0.72% |
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Unemployment Insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego County, inverted
(December)
Source: Employment Development Department |
- 0.08% |
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Stock Prices
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (December)
Source:
San Diego Daily Transcript |
+ 1.22% |
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Consumer Confidence
An index of consumer confidence in San
Diego County (December)
Source:
San Diego Union-Tribune |
+ 0.05% |
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Help Wanted Advertising
An index of online help wanted advertising in
San Diego (December)
Source: Monster Worldwide |
- 0.03% |
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National Economy
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (December)
Source: The Conference Board |
+ 1.92% |
With December’s gain, the
USD Index has now risen or been unchanged for 21 straight months. As mentioned
last month, the forecast is for the local economy to add between 10,000 and
15,000 jobs in 2011, compared to 6,300 gained in 2010. The gain is based on
expected solid growth in the national economy, and a rebound in tourism and
construction locally. Potential problems that could slow the rebound are a
continued high level of foreclosures and the impact of high unemployment, which
has topped 10 percent locally for 19 consecutive months. Also, budget deficits
at every level of government could lead to tax increases and/or big cutbacks in
spending and employment, both of which would slow the economic recovery. A last
potential problem is the recent spike in gas prices, which if it lasts would
reduce consumer buying power and increase prices of goods shipped into the
region.
Highlights: The trend
in residential units authorized by building permits remained negative for
the fifth month in a row, and 2010 was the second worst year ever for building
permits . Despite this, residential units authorized were up almost 12 percent
for the year compared to 2009. Single-family units authorized increased by more
than 24 percent, while multi-family units fell by almost 7 percent . . . For the
first time since September 2009, both initial claims for unemployment
insurance and help wanted advertising were negative, although both
were barely so. Despite that, the local unemployment rate fell to 10.1 percent
in December, down from 10.4 percent in November. . . Although local consumer
confidence has been up for eight months in a row, it remains relatively
flat. It remains to be seen if consumer confidence will be negatively affected
by the recent rise in gas prices; there has been a strong negative correlation
between those two variables in the past. . . 2010 was a good year for local
stock prices, which were up almost 18 percent and finished the year with a
five month winning streak. . . The outlook for the national economy continues to
be strongly positive, with the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators
up for the sixth consecutive month and now up 19 times in the last 21 months.
The advance estimate of GDP growth for the 4th quarter showed the
national economy growing at a 3.2 percent annualized rate, compared to a growth rate
of 2.6 percent in the 3rd quarter.
December’s increase puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San
Diego County at 110.7, up from November’s revised reading of 110.2. Although
there was no change in the previously reported increase of 0.3 percent in
November. a revision in the data for building permits led to a drop in the level
of the USD Index for the month. Please visit the Website address given below to
see the revised changes for the individual components. The values for the USD
Index for the last year are given below:
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators, please contact:
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