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Leading Economic Indicators
Up Sharply in February
Note: A
computer problem delayed the release of the January report.
The tentative release date for next month's
report is April 28.
March 31, 2011 -- The USD Burnham-Moores
Center for Real Estate's Index
of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 1.9 percent in
February, following a 0.9 percent increase in January.
February’s increase was the largest one month increase ever in the Index
and was powered by the largest monthly increase in building permits on record.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, consumer confidence, help
wanted advertising, and the outlook for the national economy also had
significant gains. Local stock
prices registered the smallest gain, but that was enough to make February the
second month in a row where all six components in the Index were positive.
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Index of Leading Economic
Indicators
The index for San Diego County that includes the
components listed below (February)
Source: USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate |
+ 1.9 % |
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Building Permits
Residential units
authorized by building permits in San Diego County (February)
Source: Construction Industry Research
Board |
+ 5.11% |
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Unemployment Insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego County, inverted
(February)
Source: Employment Development Department |
+ 2.00% |
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Stock Prices
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (February)
Source:
San Diego Daily Transcript |
+ 0.39% |
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Consumer Confidence
An index of consumer confidence in San
Diego County (February)
Source:
San Diego Union-Tribune,
The Conference Board |
+ 1.52% |
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Help Wanted Advertising
An index of online help wanted advertising in
San Diego (February)
Source: Monster Worldwide |
+ 1.01% |
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National Economy
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (February)
Source: The Conference Board |
+ 1.55% |
With gains in January and February, the USD Index has now risen or been
unchanged for nearly two years (23 consecutive months).
February’s record gain suggests a pickup in the pace of the local
economic recovery, which has been slow.
While the local economy has added almost 23,000 jobs since the depths of the
recession in January 2010, that represents a recovery
of less than 20 percent of the more than 122,000 jobs the local economy lost
from the peak in December 2007. One
result is that the local unemployment rate remains high, topping the 10 percent
mark for 21 straight months through February.
Highlights:
Residential units authorized by building permits
more than doubled in the first two months of 2011 compared
to the same period in 2010.
Single-family units authorized were actually down through February, but there
were more than five times the number of multi-family units authorized than was
the case in 2010. . . Both labor market variables were strong in February, with
initial claims for unemployment insurance hitting their best level since
September of 2008 and help wanted advertising at its highest level since
November of 2008. The net result was
that the local unemployment rate fell to 10.1 percent in February, down from
10.4 percent in January. . . Local consumer confidence continues to
rebound despite higher gas prices and a stubbornly high unemployment rate.
Starting this month, changes in the national index of consumer
expectations will be used to approximate local consumer confidence, as that data
is no longer available. . . Local stock prices extended the gains seen at the end of 2010 and
have now advanced for seven consecutive months. . . Prospects for the national
economy remain positive, with the national Index of Leading Economic
Indicators increasing for the eighth month in a row and 21st time
in 23 months. The pace of national
economic growth is slowly accelerating, with the GDP growing at a 3.1 percent
annualized rate in the fourth quarter, up from 1.7 percent in the second quarter
and 2.6 percent in the third quarter.
February’s
increase puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County
at 114.0, up from January’s reading of 111.8.
Revised data for building permits for December led to an upward revision
of the previously reported increase of 0.3 percent to 0.5 percent and the level
of the Index from to be revised from 110.7 to 110.8.
Please visit the Website address given below to see the revised changes
for the individual components. The
values for the USD Index for the last year are given below:
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators, please contact:
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