|Index of Leading Economic
The index for San Diego County that
includes the components listed below (October)
Source: University of San Diego
|- 2.3 %
Residential units authorized by building
permits in San Diego County (October)
Source: Construction Industry Research
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego
County, inverted, estimated (October)
Source: Employment Development Department
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (October)
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
An index of consumer confidence in San
Diego County (October)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
|Help Wanted Advertising
An index of online help wanted advertising in
San Diego (October)
Source: Monster Worldwide
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (October)
Source: The Conference Board
An already difficult situation took a decided turn for the worst with the
developments in October. What started as
a problem related to real estate spread into the financial system as the
viability of some of the country's
biggest financial institutions was called into question.
The problems in the housing and financial markets in turn have impacted
the rest of the economy, as retail and auto sales have plummeted, which
threatens the loss of more jobs and further weakness in the housing and
financial markets. This downward spiral
is projected to continue through the first half of 2009.
The economy is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year due
to a combination of lower oil and gas prices, increased home sales, and another
stimulus package by the federal government.
The stimulus package will likely include massive spending on
infrastructure and relief to state and local governments among other elements.
After a promising spring and summer, residential units authorized by building
permits have fallen off once again, as the surge in multi-family units that
boosted permits has cooled considerably . . . The labor market outlook remains
very weak with both initial claims for unemployment insurance and help
wanted advertising remaining under pressure.
The net result was that the local unemployment rate surged to 6.8 percent
in October, the highest level since July 1995. . . The barrage of bad news on
the economy, housing, and the financial markets continues to take a toll on
local consumer confidence. With
consumers likely to be cautious in the near term, the Christmas shopping season
is projected to be one of the worst in decades. . . Local stock prices
suffered along with the other financial markets as stocks were battered by
concerns about the economy and the health of financial institutions.
The Dow Jones Industrial average fell 14 percent during the month amid
huge volatility which saw the average daily point change a mind boggling 340
points. . . The latest economic data at the national level suggests that the
downward move of the national economy is accelerating.
The preliminary estimate for real GDP growth showed that the economy
shrank by 0.3 percent in the third quarter.
On the jobs front, more than 500,000 have been lost in the last two
months, bringing the total to 1.2 million for the year so far.
The national Index of Leading Economic Indicators is signaling
continued weakness in the months ahead as it has fallen in three of the last
decrease puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for
San Diego County
at 112.8, down from September's
reading of 115.4. Revised data for
building permits and the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators led to
the previously reported change of -0.8 percent to be revised to -0.7 percent.
Please visit the Website address given below to see the revised changes
for the individual components. The
values for the USD Index for the last year are given below:
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators, please contact: