||Index of Leading Economic
The index for San Diego County that
includes the components listed below (September)
Source: University of San Diego
|- 0.8 %
Residential units authorized by building
permits in San Diego County (September)
Source: Construction Industry Research
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego
County, inverted, estimated (September)
Source: Employment Development Department
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (September)
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
An index of consumer confidence in San
Diego County (September)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
||Help Wanted Advertising
An index of online help wanted advertising in
San Diego (September)
Source: Monster Worldwide
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (September)
Source: The Conference Board
There is no change in the previously reported negative outlook for the local
economy through the first half of 2009.
What is needed to turn the economy around both locally and nationally is
stability in the housing market.
Falling prices and a jump in foreclosures have hurt both the labor market and
financial markets and institutions.
The recent increase in home resales is a positive sign, but a bottom in the
housing market in not likely to be reached until the latter part of 2009, and
home prices are not expected to increase until 2010 at the earliest.
A weak September broke a four month positive streak for
residential units authorized by building permits.
Total residential units authorized were down 24 percent through the
first three quarters of 2008 compared to the same period in 2007.
The large inventory of single family homes on the market led to a drop of
nearly 34 percent in single-family units authorized, compared to a 14 percent
drop in multi-family units. . . Both the labor market variables remain negative.
The pace of job loss is accelerating, as
initial claims for unemployment insurance
reached a five year high. On the
hiring side, help wanted advertising
fell for the 25th month in a row.
The net result was that the local unemployment rate remained above the 6
percent level for the third consecutive month at 6.4 percent. . . For the first
time in 11 months, local consumer
confidence was not the biggest negative component.
Local consumer confidence is still negative, but may be approaching a
bottom. It remains to be seen how
this will be impacted by the negative news in the financial markets. . .
Local stock prices fell in September
in a prelude to the disastrous results to come in October. . . The news on the
national economy remains negative despite the rise in the
national Index of Leading Economic
Indicators. September saw a loss
of 159,000 jobs nationwide, the worst result since March 2003.
Also, the previously reported growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
for the second quarter was revised downward from 3.3 percent to 2.8 percent.
There is a strong possibility that growth in the third quarter will be
negative, given the job losses and the turmoil in the financial markets, with a
weak fourth quarter to follow. It is
very likely that a recession will be declared for the national economy; in fact,
we may be there already.
September’s decrease puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for
County at 115.4, down from
August’s revised reading of 116.3.
Revised data for building permits and the national Index of Leading Economic
Indicators led to the previously reported change of -0.6 percent to be revised
downward to -0.8 percent. Also
revised was the Index value and change for June. Please visit the Website
address given below to see the revised changes for the individual components.
The values for the USD Index for the last year are given below:
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators, please contact: