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Leading Economic Indicators
Up in June
Note:
The tentative release date for next month's report is August 26.
July 28, 2010 --
The University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.2 percent in June. For the
second time in three months, advancing components and declining ones were even
at three apiece. The gain was led by a sharp rise in building permits and help
wanted advertising. There was also a moderate increase in local consumer
confidence. These offset a big drop in local stock prices and smaller declines
in initial claims for unemployment insurance and the outlook for the national
economy to push the USD Index to its 15th consecutive monthly gain.
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Index of Leading Economic
Indicators
The index for San Diego County that includes the
components listed below (June)
Source: University of San Diego |
+ 0.2 % |
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Building Permits
Residential units
authorized by building permits in San Diego County (June)
Source: Construction Industry Research
Board |
+ 1.59% |
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Unemployment Insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego County, inverted
(June)
Source: Employment Development Department |
- 0.58% |
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Stock Prices
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (June)
Source:
San Diego Daily Transcript |
- 1.12% |
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Consumer Confidence
An index of consumer confidence in San
Diego County (June)
Source:
San Diego Union-Tribune |
+ 0.44% |
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Help Wanted Advertising
An index of online help wanted advertising in
San Diego (June)
Source: Monster Worldwide |
+ 1.24% |
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National Economy
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (June)
Source: The Conference Board |
- 0.35% |
The gain in June continues
the recent trend of positive but modest increases for the USD Index. The outlook
for the local economy remains for continued growth but at a slow pace, meaning
that it will take much longer to recover from the "Great Recession" than it took
to get into it. In 2008 and 2009, the local economy lost nearly 80,000 jobs. The
projection is that it will take three, four, or even five years to regain all of
those jobs. There is some encouraging news for the labor market as help wanted
advertising in June reached its highest level since December 2008. Monster.com
reports that the areas showing the biggest gains were management, business and
financial operations, protective services, maintenance and repair, production,
and transportation.
Highlights: Residential units authorized by
building permits reached their highest level since August 2008. Residential
units authorized ended the first half up 28 percent compared to the same period
in 2009. The bulk of the gain came in single-family units, which were up almost
48 percent in the first half, while multi-family units were up only 3 percent.
The 342 single-family units authorized in June was the highest monthly total in
two years (since June 2008). . . The labor market components remain mixed. Job
losses continue to be a problem, as initial claims for unemployment insurance
rose for the third straight month, which is a negative for the Index. The
hiring side of the market was positive, as help wanted advertising
registered its biggest one month gain since July 2002. The net result was that
the local unemployment rate rose to 10.5 percent in June from a rate of 10.1
percent in May. . . The trend in local consumer confidence continues to
rebound from recent lows with the moving average for that component up now two
months in a row . . . Local stock prices suffered a second consecutive
big drop as the financial markets continue to worry about the status of the
economic recovery. . . The national Index of Leading Economic Indicators
fell for the second time in three months (the April change was initially
negative, was revised to unchanged, and then revised to negative once again),
adding to the uncertainty as to the course of the national economy. The
"advance" estimate of second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had not been
released as of the writing of this report, but the growth rate in the first
quarter was revised downward from 3.0 percent to 2.7 percent in the "third"
estimate for that quarter.
June’s increase puts the USD Index of Leading Economic
Indicators for San Diego County at 109.9, up from May’s revised reading of
109.5, up from the originally reported level of 109.4. Revisions in the data for
building permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance, and the national
Index of Leading Economic Indicators caused the change for the month to be
revised up to a gain of 0.3 percent instead of the previously reported gain of
0.2 percent. Please visit the Website address given below to see the revised
changes for the individual components. The values for the USD Index for the last
year are given below:
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators, please contact:
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