Leading Economic Indicators
Up Sharply in September
The tentative release date for next month's report is December 1.
October 27, 2009 -- The University of San Diego's Index
of Leading Economic Indicators for
San Diego County
rose 1.0 percent in September. For
the sixth month in a row, a strong rise in local consumer confidence led the
move to the upside. Building permits
and the outlook for the national economy were also up sharply during the month.
On the downside, initial claims for unemployment insurance were
significantly negative, and there were smaller decreases in local stock prices
and help wanted advertising.
||Index of Leading Economic
The index for San Diego County that includes the
components listed below (September)
Source: University of San Diego
|+ 1.0 %
Residential units authorized by building
permits in San Diego County (September)
Source: Construction Industry Research
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego
County, inverted, estimated (September)
Source: Employment Development Department
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (September)
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
An index of consumer confidence in San
Diego County (September)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
||Help Wanted Advertising
An index of online help wanted advertising in
San Diego (September)
Source: Monster Worldwide
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (September)
Source: The Conference Board
gain was the sixth straight monthly increase in the USD Index and its strongest
increase since it turned positive in April.
The outlook continues to be for the local economy to remain weak for the
rest of 2009 but to hit a bottom in the first half of 2010.
This is in terms of jobs and employment, which typically is a lagging
indicator. Economic activity may already
be picking up, but businesses tend to be cautious in terms of hiring new workers
until they are sure that a recovery has taken hold.
As a result, the local unemployment rate is expected to approach and may
top the 11 percent mark before improving.
Residential units authorized by building permits
bounced back in September after a couple of weak
Still, residential units authorized are down 48 percent
through the third quarter of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008.
While single-family units authorized were down 34
percent, multi-family units authorized were down a whopping 59 percent through
the end of the third quarter. . . For the 18th consecutive month,
both labor market variables were negative.
initial claims for unemployment insurance reached
an all-time high in September, which is usually the lowest month of the year for
On the other hand,
help wanted advertising, while still negative,
seems to have stabilized somewhat.
The net result was that the local unemployment rate
remains high at 10.2 percent in September, although that was down from a revised
10.6 percent in August. . . The trend in local
consumer confidence remains strong, with the
current level well above the lows set in the first quarter of this year.
to the San Diego Union-Tribune, that holds for both the outlook for the current
situation and for future expectations. . .
Local stock prices
went counter to the rest of the markets and were down in September.
Despite that, local stocks are up nearly 49 percent
since the beginning of the year. . . Matching the local index, the
national Index of Leading Economic Indicators
has now also increased for six consecutive months.
While GDP growth is likely to be positive in the
third quarter, unemployment remains a problem, with job losses continuing and
the national unemployment rate likely to top 10 percent (from the current 9.8
decrease puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for
County at 103.4, up
revised reading of 102.5.
Revisions in building permits for August and in the
national Index of Leading Economic Indicators for June through August affected
the change in the USD Index for June and August and its level for July and
Please visit the Website address given below to see the
revised changes for the individual components.
The values for the USD Index for the last year are
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators, please contact: