Leading Economic Indicators
Up in October
The tentative release date for next month's report is January 5.
December 1, 2009 -- The
University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for
San Diego County
rose 0.2 percent in October. Leading
the way to the upside once again was a sharp gain in consumer confidence.
There were also smaller increases in building permits and the outlook for
the national economy. Big negative
moves in initial claims for unemployment insurance and local stock prices and a
smaller decrease in help wanted advertising nearly offset the positive moves,
but were not enough to keep the USD Index from advancing for the seventh
|Index of Leading Economic
The index for San Diego County that includes the
components listed below (October)
Source: University of San Diego
|+ 0.2 %
Residential units authorized by building
permits in San Diego County (October)
Source: Construction Industry Research
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego
County, inverted, estimated (October)
Source: Employment Development Department
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (October)
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
An index of consumer confidence in San
Diego County (October)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
|Help Wanted Advertising
An index of online help wanted advertising in
San Diego (October)
Source: Monster Worldwide
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (October)
Source: The Conference Board
gain, the outlook for the local economy remains unchanged with a bottom expected
in the first half of 2010. That is in terms of employment, which typically lags
behind other economic activity. The
labor market will remain weak for the next few months, which will make 2009 the
worst year ever in terms of job loss for
Employment will fall by nearly 50,000 this year, which will push the
number of jobs in the local economy back to the level that existed in 2004.
After hitting the bottom, job growth will be slow, with employment
expected to increase by only a couple of thousand jobs for 2010 as a whole.
Although the trend was positive in October, 2009 will be by far the worst year
on record for residential units authorized by
building permits, even worse than last year’s
previous low mark of 5,154 units authorized.
Construction activity remains at low levels despite
the fact that housing prices and sales activity are both on the upswing.
An improvement is expected in 2010, but residential
units authorized next year will likely be the second lowest ever. . . There are
still no signs of a turnaround on the job front.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
hit another all-time high in October and are approaching the 40,000 mark.
By comparison, this is roughly four times what the
level was when the local economy was at its peak at the end of 2005.
Help wanted advertising
fell for 38th consecutive month but seems to
have stabilized a little in the last few months.
The net result was that the local unemployment rate
was 10.5 percent in October, the fifth month in a row that the local
unemployment rate was in double digits. . . Local
consumer confidence continues to lead the move to
As has been mentioned in previous reports, the key to
reviving the local economy is for that to translate into increased spending by
The holiday buying season will be a good indication as to
whether or not that comes into fruition.
Initial reports on post-Thanksgiving sales
nationally indicate that traffic is up but average spending is down, leading to
overall sales levels about equal to those of last year. . . After rebounding 40
percent from the March lows, local stock prices
have pulled back in the last couple of months. . . The outlook for the national
economy continues to be positive, with the national
Index of Leading Economic Indicators increasing for
the seventh consecutive month.
As expected, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
turned positive in the third quarter, with the national economy advancing at a
2.8 percent annualized rate.
increase puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 103.7, up from September's
reading of 103.4. There was a small
revision in building permits for September, but it was not enough to change the
previously reported change and level of the USD Index for that month.
Please visit the Website address given below to see the revised changes
for the individual components. The values
for the USD Index for the last year are given below:
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading
Economic Indicators, please contact: